It was another split week for my picks, but I’m still encouraged by the results.
The Buffalo Bills — a look-ahead Week 5 pick over the Jacksonville Jaguars in London — played from behind for most of the game and lost as favorites, despite having a better turnover rate and a better overall offensive performance. The key difference was how well each team performed on third down. The Jaguars converted 10 out of 18, while the Bills only managed 5 out of 12. That helped allow Jacksonville to run more plays (82, to 54 for Buffalo) despite the Bills gaining more yards per play (7.2 vs. 5.8).
The Los Angeles Rams, another Week 5 pick, failed to cover as home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles, but it was a three-point game going into the fourth quarter.
The Washington Commanders suffered a surprising blowout loss to the Chicago Bears, yet quarterback Sam Howell did his part, completing 37 of 51 passes for 388 passing yards, smashing the over on his 234½ passing yards prop. He had the most success against Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, connecting with his receivers seven times (out of 10 targets) with Stevenson in coverage, accumulating 70 yards. Against Chicago safety Jaquan Brisker, Howell completed four of six passes for 73 yards. The game showed again that Washington’s first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy can get Howell dialed in under the right circumstances, something we will look to take advantage of again in the near future.
And with that, on to Week 6.
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Best bets record: 5-3
Player prop record: 3-1
Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds. Regarding player props, generally speaking, the public takes overs early in the week, while professional bettors wait until closer to game time to bet an under.
Bye week: Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers (-10) at Cleveland Browns
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -6½ (This number has since moved up significantly.)
The 49ers have the superior offense, and enough weapons to decimate an opposing defense on any drive. In Week 1, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk caught eight passes for 129 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 2, running back Christian McCaffrey tallied 137 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown. A week later it was Deebo Samuel catching six of 12 targets for 129 yards and a score. McCaffrey was splendid again in Week 4, smashing Arizona for 177 total yards and four touchdowns, putting himself in the MVP conversation. (SPOILER: He isn’t MVP material.) Last week, it was tight end George Kittle catching three passes on four targets for 67 yards and three touchdowns. Good luck stopping all those weapons, Cleveland, even with the Browns’ defense off to a historically good start.
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Meanwhile, the Browns are dealing with significant injuries on offense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson missed Cleveland’s previous game with an injured right shoulder, didn’t practice this week and won’t play against the 49ers. Furthermore, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, two-time all-pro guard Joel Bitonio left the Browns facility last week on crutches and is likely to miss the San Francisco game, and tight end David Njoku is also likely to sit out.
This line opened at 49ers -2½ and moved up significantly, and the impactful injuries have already sent this line soaring past the key number of 7.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2½)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -2½, playable to -3
I am a little surprised this number didn’t change from the look-ahead line even after Washington was manhandled by the Bears, arguably one of the worst teams in the league, the same week Atlanta beat the improving Houston Texans despite committing two turnovers and not forcing any.
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These two offenses have been performing about the same. Each have struggled to put points on the board in first halves, and each are guided by below-average quarterbacks in Howell and Desmond Ridder. However, the difference in the defenses has been huge — and worth exploiting.
Atlanta has had one of the best run defenses in the NFL, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus, ranked No. 3 behind the Seattle Seahawks and the Eagles The Falcons stop opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage 24 percent of the time, eighth best in the league. The Falcons’ defense is also saving almost five points per game based on the down, distance and field position of each play against them, per data from TruMedia, while the Commanders’ defense is allowing five more points per game than expected. If Atlanta makes Washington’s offense one-dimensional and biased toward the pass, I would expect the Falcons to have a tremendous edge in this matchup.
And finally, the Commanders placed safety Darrick Forrest (along with special-teams ace Jeremy Reaves) on injured reserve this week, further taxing a struggling secondary
Player prop of the week
Return to menuTennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill under 210½ passing yards, playable to under 208½
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Tannehill has more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (two) and Sunday will face the NFL’s best pass coverage unit in Baltimore, per Pro Football Focus. The Ravens boast three players among the top 20 highest-rated players in pass coverage — linebacker Roquan Smith (No. 1) and safeties Geno Stone (No. 10) and Kyle Hamilton (tied at No. 17) — and are allowing a league-low 4.1 net yards per pass.
Also, Baltimore departed for London on Monday morning and will spend the entire week across the pond while Tennessee plans to fly to London on Thursday night, preferring to work at its team headquarters. Could jet lag be an issue for Tannehill and the Titans?
The plays above represent our best bets of the week (or weeks) because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Tennessee Titans
Return to menuSunday, 9:30 a.m. | NFL Network
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Pick: Baltimore Ravens -4
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13½)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Miami Dolphins -13½
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -4
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Chicago Bears +2½ (This number has since moved up.)
New Orleans Saints (-1½) at Houston Texans
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Houston Texans +1½
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-2½)
Return to menuSunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2½
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Return to menuSunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: New England Patriots +3
Detroit Lions (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -7
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets
Return to menuSunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: New York Jets +7
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-15½)
Return to menuSunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: New York Giants +14 (This number has since moved up.)
Dallas Cowboys (-2½) at Los Angeles Chargers
Return to menuMonday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC, ESPN
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -2 (This number has since moved up.)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10½)
Return to menuThursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: Denver Broncos +10½
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